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Illustrative screens · invented data, not a betting record
The Desk
The day’s card at a glance. Suggestions are the matches that clear the gate, ranked by the model’s win probability, each with its reference price and the expected value at that price. Bets are logged inline, at the stake and the odds actually taken. Everything else waits in a scouting drawer, and every row there says why it missed.
Match analysis
Open a row to see the reasoning: how the two styles meet on this surface, where each player’s Elo is heading, and any advisory flags, such as a heavy week or a recent retirement, with a shortcut to check the news. Flags are for the reader. The probability never sees them.
Performance
Is it working, and where? One scope row governs every figure on the screen. The headline is flat-stake ROI with its standard error, beside a hit rate measured against the retro benchmark. When the rules change, only picks served afterwards count as a test, and the screen tracks progress towards the roughly 600 graded picks a verdict needs.
| Level | Graded | W–L | Hit | ROI | P/L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 41 | 29–12 | 70.7% | +7.5% | +3.08u | |
| 1000 | 38 | 25–13 | 65.8% | +2.0% | +0.75u | |
| 500 | 47 | 32–15 | 68.1% | +4.2% | +1.96u | |
| 250 | 62 | 41–21 | 66.1% | +3.2% | +1.96u |
Style
A scouting card for every player, built from match data: serve, return, power, net, consistency, clutch and stamina as percentiles within tour and level, and surface fit from Elo. Where there is no evidence the axis stays empty; it is never filled with an average. Style was tested as a model input and added nothing, so the card is for reading. The model that prices the picks never uses it.
Runs by itself
Lives in the Windows tray. It scrapes the slate twice a day, scores it, settles the previous day’s matches and refits the model on fresh ATP results every week.
Local and free
Scrapers, database and model all run on one machine. No server, and no paid data.
Honest by construction
The gate has a single definition, shared by the screen and the record. A rule change opens a new method version automatically, and a graded pick can never be rewritten.